New Zealand Dollar: In a session lacking local risk events, the New Zealand Dollar was attuned to offshore developments surrounding Greece’s private sector bond swap and US fundamental releases. Supported throughout the Asian session by anticipation of the impending Greek deal, a condition for the receipt of its second bailout package, the Kiwi touched highs of 0.8270 before coming under pressure into offshore hours. Of note to the Kiwi was an impressive US unemployment report on Friday which sent the Greenback rallying, and a Chinese trade deficit of 31.5B which hit risk sentiment over the weekend. These events have combined to push the New Zealand Dollar below 82 cents this morning, opening for the week at 0.8180 against the Greenback; a worse than expected trade balance across the Tasman on Friday lifting the Kiwi’s spirits relative to the Aussie Dollar and the pair open today at 1.2895 (0.7755).

We expect a range today of 0.8130 – 0.8230 - Click here to transfer money

Great British Pound: Sterling closed last week lower following the better than expected US employment report released on Friday, the resultant Greenback rally capping off a week where Cable continued to slide from Feb 29 highs and Sterling struggled to move in either direction against the Euro. Earlier in the session Cable moved lower after manufacturing production in the United Kingdom fell back by 0.1% in January, an initial low of 1.5750 to be later broken by market reaction to the aforementioned US jobs report. Closing the week at 1.5670 Sterling opens relatively unchanged against the US Dollar, however a pullback in the Aussie and Kiwi this morning has moderated Sterling’s fall in the cross-rates. GBP/AUD currently trades at 1.4840 after touching lows of 1.4780 on Friday evening; GBP/NZD trades at 1.9130 up from 1.9035.

We expect a range today of 1.4760 – 1.4900 - Click here to transfer money

Majors: The US jobs market is looking up after Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, as this vital monthly unemployment report showed another 227,000 jobs added during January. Beating expectations by 18,000, this number has not only improved sentiment surrounding unemployment, but also increased speculation of better than expected Retail Sales due out Tuesday this week. Subsequently the Greenback rallied to touch 10 month highs against the Japanese Yen, nearing 82.60 and later consolidating to close last week and open this week around 82.40. The Euro also fell against the US Dollar touching lows of 1.3100 after the release of US unemployment data culminated with downward pressure surrounding the Euro and Greece’s voluntary write-down of private sector creditors. A crucial debt swap was reached on Friday which paves the way for the indebted nation to receive its second bailout totalling 110 billion Euros. It is reported, however, to likely invoke around US$3 billion worth of credit default insurance and this will weigh heavily on the shared currency. Opening this morning the Euro sits just above lows at 1.3115.

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Data releases:

AUD: No data due for release

NZD: No data due for release

JPY: Core Machinery Orders m/m

GBP: No data due for release

EUR: German WPI m/m

USD: Federal Budget Balance

This information has been written by Carly Pickering of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). This forex commentary is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand Dollar rebounded strongly yesterday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to maintain the official cash rate at 2.5 percent in early morning trade. Despite a slow start to the day in which local equities failed to find any solid footing the Kiwi rebounded well as it entered European Markets gaining over 1 US Cent from its earlier low of 0.8139 against its US Counterpart. Helping click the risk button on overnight was renewed optimism out of Greece that the highly indebted nation will secure its second bailout package as they move towards securing the necessary private bondholder participation. With positive employment data also flowing out of the US the Kiwi rain out of steam just shy of the 82.70 US Cents mark. Having reached an all time high of 0.8843 last August against the Greenback the New Zealand currency has done very well to maintain levels above 82 US Cents this week.

We expect a range today of 0.8210 – 0.8310 - Click here to transfer money

Great British Pound

The Bank of England held its key cash rate at 0.5 percent and maintained its commitment to buy a further 50 billion pounds by May in a meeting held yesterday. Whilst the outlook for the British economy remains very much clouded the Great British Pound received a much needed boost yesterday with news that Greece has moved closer to a private bondholder agreement doing enough to shift markets well and truly into positive territory. After trading to an earlier low of 1.5723 against its US Counterpart, following a handful of major currencies higher the Sterling opens more than a full cent stronger this morning currently swapping hands a rate of 1.5829. Meanwhile on the cross rates overnight the advances of the Sterling were limited against the commodity based currencies losing ground against both the Aussie (1.4838) and the Kiwi (1.9141)

We expect a range today of 1.4770 – 1.4900 - Click here to transfer money

Majors:

US Stocks rose, sending the S&P 500 Index towards its best two-day rally of the year after falling as much as 1.5 percent earlier in the week. In a bullish evening of trade across global markets, investors received the boost they were looking as concerns over Europe’s debt crisis eased. With it now looking more and more likely Greece will be able to achieve the necessary 75 percent participation rate from private bondholders which would allow the highly indebted nation to write off 125 Billion Euros. Well purchased following the news the 17-Nation appreciated 0.9 percent against its US Counterpart and after trading between a 24 hour range of (1.3134 – 1.3290) it opens more than cent stronger this morning at a rate of 1.3280. Whilst in Europe, in line with expectation the ECB kept its official cash rate unchanged overnight at 1 percent with ECB President Mario Draghi stating that the euro-zone has stabilized somewhat over the previous month and the overall economic environment has improve enormously, suggesting a end to record-low interest rates at some stage this year. Meanwhile in the US overnight weekly unemployment claims remained steady ahead of the headlined non-farm payroll figures which are due for release this evening.

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Data releases

AUD: Trade Balance

NZD: No Data Today

JPY:  M2 Money Supply y/y

GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m, PPI Input m/m, Consumer Inflation Expectation, Trade Balance, Industrial Production m/m, PPI Output m/m

EUR: German Final CPI m/m, German Trade Balance, French Industrial Production m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m

USD: Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate Wholesale inventories

This information has been written by Michael Judge of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). This forex commentary is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

We expect a range today of 1.0510 – 1.0630

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand Dollar has managed to find some buyers over the course of the last 24 hours, following a week in which commodity currencies have been hammered by poor global sentiment. After starting the day at a rate of 0.8121 against its US Counterpart the Kiwi traded as high as 0.8201 in overnight trade with commodity prices and global equities all finishing in positive territory. In a statement released this morning the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in line with expectation kept the official benchmark cash-rate on hold at a rate of 2.5 percent. The Central Bank Governor Alan Bollard said in his accompanying statement that weak economic growth and concerns over Europe’s debt crisis could potentially spill over into weaker global demand for New Zealand’s exports. Falling around 40 basis points following the announcement the New Zealand Dollar opens this morning buying 81.61 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8100 – 0.8210

Great British Pound

UK Stocks gained for the first time in four days yesterday, with markets overall rebounding well from the biggest drop off this year. With US ADP Employment figures beating expectation overnight, speculation has already kicked off ahead of the headline unemployment rate which is expected out of the US on Friday. After trading to an earlier low 1.5696 against its US Counterpart the Great British Pound was able to find some upside opening this morning stronger at a rate of 1.5735. Looking today the Bank of England are due meet this evening with any hint of further monetary easing likely to have a weakening impact on the Sterling. Meanwhile this morning the Sterling opens weaker against both the Aussie (1.4876) and the Kiwi (1.9275)

We expect a range today of 1.4820 – 1.4930

Majors:

European Stocks rebounded overnight following the biggest drop since November as positive sentiment returned to markets. Helping turn the risk button back on overnight, optimism mounted that Greece will be successfully able to negotiate the biggest ever sovereign debt restructure as they moved closer to the necessary participation rate of 75 percent required to ensure that the heavily indebted nations private debt holdings drop by the required 53.5 percent. Whilst on European happenings despite German Factory Orders which unexpectedly declined for the month of January, investors snapped up the 17-Nation Euro driving it to an overnight high of 1.3163 against its US Counterpart as it opens stronger this morning at a rate of 1.3142. In addition to the positive flows out of Europe, also helping markets return to positive territory yesterday was the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Report which showed companies in the US added 216,000 workers in February beating the median forecast. Also opening noticeably stronger this morning is the Greenback which is currently trading at a rate of 81.147 against the Japanese Yen.

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Data releases

AUD: Unemployment Rate

NZD: Official Cash Rate, Manufacturing Sales q/q

JPY:  Final GDP q/q, Bank Lending y/y, Current Account, Economy Watchers Sentiment, Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y

GBP: Official Bank Rate, Asset Purchase Facility, MPC Rate Statement

EUR: French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q, French Trade Balance, German Industrial Production m/m

USD: Challenge Job Cuts y/y, Unemployment Claims

This information has been written by Michael Judge of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). This forex commentary is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

We expect a range today of 1.0460 – 1.0600

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand Dollar weakened across the board yesterday as investors flocked away from assets deemed riskier in nature. With global equities recording large losses and commodities falling we have seen a large retreat back in to the safe-haven units over the past 24 hours, driven mainly by concerns that global growth is stalling. Following the announcement out of the 17-Nation Euro Zone that Economic growth for the final quarter of 2011 shrunk by 0.3 percent the Kiwi was subsequently sold to reach an eventual low of 0.8099 against is US Counterpart, the lowest level seen in close to six weeks. Opening this morning a full cent weaker currently buying 81.07 US Cents, the New Zealand Dollar appears to again be at the mercy of global risk flows over the next 24 hours as investors look towards New Zealand’s Interest Rate decision tomorrow

We expect a range today of 0.8050 – 0.8160

Great British Pound

Investor’s hands were well and truly on the sell button for the Sterling overnight with fresh concerns surfacing that private-sector support for Greece’s debt restructuring has started to diminish. The FTSE 100 Index lost 1.9 percent yesterday as Euro-Zone growth figures also disappointed markets. After starting the day at a rate of 1.5860 against its US Counterpart the Great British Pound has managed to shed a staggering one and a half cents over the past 24 hours currently trading at a rate of 1.5706. In what was a dreadful day for global markets the play of the day was to buy anything with a safe haven status. Despite the significant drop against the Greenback the Sterling has managed to find some minor upside against a weaker Australian Dollar (1.4921) and New Zealand Dollar (1.9372). In the absence of any local data over the coming 24 hours, the Sterling is likely to take leads from any developments out of Greece in the short-term.

We expect a range today of 1.4870 -1.4980

Majors:

The EURO declined to a two-week low versus the Dollar overnight after a report showed that growth in the 17-Nation Euro-Zone contracted by 0.3 percent. In a week which has been dominated by downward revisions in global growth forecasts, last night’s reading has only added to concerns that the current market environment is offering investors more questions than answers. After reaching an earlier high of 1.3241 against the Greenback the EURO has been well sold in overnight trade opening this morning noticeably weaker at a rate of 1.3104. In a classic move of risk-aversion this week investors have all but shunned European-denominated assets helping explain the sharp appreciation in both the Greenback and Japanese Yen, which are renowned for their strength during times of uncertainty. Looking ahead this week the ECB is due to meet on Thursday to discuss their current Policy stance with concerns also being highlighted overnight that the Central Banks Balance Sheet has in fact accelerated too quickly, surging to a record of 3.02 trillion Euro’s last week, 31 percent bigger than the German Economy.

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Data releases

AUD: GDP q/q

NZD: No Data Today

JPY:  Leading Indicators

GBP: No Data Today

EUR: German Factory Orders m/m,

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Revised Non-Farm Productivity q/q, Revist Unit Labor Costs q/q

This information has been written by Michael Judge of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). This forex commentary is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

We expect a range today of 1.0590 – 1.0720

New Zealand Dollar:

New Zealand’s Dollar dropped off sharply yesterday amid further signs that the economic outlook for both China and Europe is dimming significantly. With China decreasing there growth outlook for 2012 and signs of further cooling, concerns surrounding a hard-landing for New Zealand’s largest trading partner has seen investors move away from assets deemed riskier in nature over the past 24 hours. As global risk sentiment took a battling so did the New Zealand Dollar which fell from an earlier high of 0.8306 against its US Counterpart to an eventual low of 0.8205, where we find it opening this morning. In what is shaping up as a very busy week with key risk events occurring consistently over the next few days, The Bank of New Zealand are expected to meet on Thursday with any signalling of a future rate cut likely lead to further selling pressures for New Zealand’s currency

We expect a range today of 0.8150 – 0.8250

Great British Pound

In a busy session for the Sterling yesterday, the FTSE 100 Index decreased 0.6 percent whilst European services and manufacturing output also shrank by a larger than forecast amount. Despite global sentiment taking a hammering overnight and a string of disappointing figures out of both China and Europe the Great British Pound has managed to keep its head above water over the course of the past 24 hours opening this morning around 30 basis points stronger against its US Counterpart at a rate of 1.5863. Looking ahead this week the Bank of England is due to meet on Thursday and whilst it is most likely they will keep the current level of asset-purchasing unchanged it still remains a key risk event for the Sterling. Meanwhile this morning The Pound opens noticeably stronger against a weaker Aussie (1.4865) and Kiwi (1.9326)

We expect a range today of 1.4800 -1.4920

Majors:

US Stocks fell yesterday as the S&P 500 Index recorded its biggest two-day drop in 2012, losing just short of a full one percent. Driving investors away from equity markets, the mood was initially dampened following China’s downward revision in its forecasted growth rate for 2012 with sentiment getting even further battered when American factory orders decreased for the first time in three months. Whilst ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the US did manage to provide some support for global markets it was not enough to recapture the ground already lost. In what was an overall bearish session yesterday the 17-Nation Euro managed to hold its ground against its US Counterpart doing well to sustain levels above the 1.32 handle after trading to an earlier low of 1.3159. Whilst in Europe, markets are likely to remain skittish over the coming days with Greece expecting bondholders to accept a one-time offer to write off 100 Billion Euro’s worth of Greek debt in an offer set to expire on the 8^th of March. Benefitting from the monumental shift away from anything bearing risk the Greenback continued its recent march forward with the USD/JPY Cross opening well above 81.00 this morning at a rate of 81.420.

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Data releases

AUD: Current Account, Cash Rate

NZD: No Data Today

JPY:  Average Cash Earnings y/y

GBP: No Data Today

EUR: Revised GDP q/q,

USD: No Data Today

This information has been written by Michael Judge of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). This forex commentary is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

New Zealand Dollar:

In the absence of any local data releases the New Zealand Dollar drifted lower for much of Friday’s session with investors selling the Kiwi to reach an eventual low of 0.8285 against its US Counterpart. As the initial shine of Greece’s second bailout package continues to fade, riskier assets such as the New Zealand Dollar struggled late last week with the Greenback being the major benefactor of global risk-flows towards the safe-haven unit. With global equities also finishing in the red the New Zealand Dollar opens more than a full cent weaker against the US Currency as it currently buys 82.87 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8240 – 0.8350

Great British Pound

Despite manufacturing figures surprising on the upside earlier in the week and Construction PMI data beating expectation on Friday the Great British Pound has lost ground for much of the past 24 hours trading between a 24 hour range of (1.5822-1.5965) against its US Counterpart. Failing to find any real support up above the 1.59 handle, the Sterling opens a full cent weaker, currently trading at a rate of 1.5828 against its US Counterpart. Highlighting data flows out of the UK this coming week the Bank of England are expected to meet on Thursday where its widely tipped they will maintain their current bond-purchasing target at 325 billion pounds.  Meanwhile on the cross-rates this morning the Sterling opens relatively unchanged against both the Australian Dollar (1.4741) and the New Zealand Dollar (1.9075)

We expect a range today of 1.4700 -1.4810

Majors:

US Stocks fell, pulling the S&P 500 Index down from the highest level seen since 2008 whilst Oil declined in what was an overall bearish session across global markets on Friday. In a clear sign that investors have to a large degree moved their attention to the harsh reality that faces Europe in the form of strict austerity measures the 17 Nation EURO lost ground against 10 of its 16 major counterparties. Having started the day at a rate of 1.3309 against its US Counterpart the shared unit  lost over a cent following the announcement by Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy that the Euro-Zones fourth largest economy would target on overall budget deficit of 5.8 percent of Domestic GDP up sharply from its previous target of 4.4 precent. With Spanish 10-year notes subsequently rising for the first time in 3 days, the woes of the EURO were further compounded when statistics also revealed that Retail Sales in Germany also declined by 1.6 percent in December against an expected drop of 0.5 percent. In further currency happenings The Bank of Japan further reinforced there pledge to maintain inflation at 1% resulting in a fresh bout of Yen weakness as the USD/JPY spiked to a 24 hour high of 81.388 against its US Counterpart

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Data releases

AUD: MI Inflation Gauge m/m, ANZ Job advertisements, Company operating profits q/q

NZD: Visitor Arrivals m/m

JPY:  No Data today

GBP: Services PMI

EUR: Retail Sales m/m

USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders m/m

This information has been written by Michael Judge of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). This forex commentary is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

New Zealand Dollar: The dairy industry has pushed New Zealand’s export volumes to their highest level since the Overseas Trade Indices were established as a barometer in 1990. Rising 2.9% in the December quarter, the New Zealand Dollar rallied of the report released by Statistics New Zealand meeting resistance just above 0.8360. While initially unable to break through, later Greenback weakness meant the Kiwi was successful on second attempt and after peaking very close to 0.8400 we open this morning at 0.8380. The Australian Dollar has had a solid performance over the past 24 hours and thus the Kiwi has slipped on the cross rate to 1.2875 (0.7767).

We expect a range today of 0.8360 – 0.8420

Great British Pound: Growth in the UK’s manufacturing sector fell back in the month of January, as the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reported a 51.2. After December’s 52.0 markets were expecting similar growth and thus Sterling came under pressure after these expectations were not met. Dipping back to support at 1.5900 Cable then bounced higher from here helped along by Greenback weakness stemming from some of its own softer than expected fundamental releases. Opening levels into the final day of the week stand at 1.5950 and Sterling predictably sits lower against its antipodean counterparts in the light of a moderate increase in risk sentiment. GBP/AUD trades at 1.4770 and GBP/NZD at 1.9020.

We expect a range today of 1.4710 – 1.4850

Majors: The Greenback has slipped over the previous 24 hours as an increase in the rate of expansion for Chinese manufacturing boosted risk sentiment and local US data was softer than expected. With investors moving away from safe haven assets such as the US Dollar post Chinese Manufacturing, a subsequent fall in US manufacturing PMI from 54.1 to 52.4 added to the Greenback’s weakness. With the Japanese Yen closely linked to Asian growth, the USD/JPY pair moved back below 80.90, although with foreign investment looking more attractive to the Japanese people as the world economy improves the Yen conceded some of these gains to move back above 81.00. The Euro rallied moderately throughout Asian hours to 1.3350 however a manufacturing index of 49.0 for the indebted region, an increase in unemployment to 10.7% and a rise in inflation to 2.7% painted only a difficult picture for the European people. Finding it difficult to capitalise on Greenback weakness the Euro has slipped from daily highs back towards the 1.3300 handle.

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Data releases:

AUD: No data due for release

NZD: ANZ Commodity Prices m/m

JPY: Household Spending y/y; National Core CPI y/y; Unemployment Rate

GBP: Construction PMI

EUR: German Retail Sales m/m; PPI m/m

USD: No data due for release

This information has been written by Carly Pickering of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). This forex commentary is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

We expect a range today of 1.0720 – 1.0820

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar spent its local session on Tuesday consolidating previous gains made on Monday night. After initially pushing above 84 US cents for the first time in nearly a week, clear resistance just below 0.8420 pushed the Kiwi lower. Oscillating around the 84 cent handle, it was here it entered London hours and despite an improvement in risk appetite it seemed resistance proved too much and pushed the New Zealand Dollar back towards 0.8350. A rally late in the North American session sees the pair at 0.8370/80 this morning although the Kiwi suffers on the Aussie cross, opening today at 1.2860 (0.7776). On a domestic front New Zealand monthly business confidence is scheduled for release although it looks as though risk sentiment is going to remain the overriding driving factor, especially against the Greenback.

We expect a range today of 0.8340 – 0.8430

Great British Pound: Opening support of 1.5815 held for the British Pound in early hours of the day yesterday as risk appetite gathered momentum throughout the day. The announcement of a referendum on the EU’s new fiscal compact by Irish authorities quickly dampened sentiment and the GBP/USD dropped a quick 60 points towards 1.5800. With markets re-evaluation the true implications of the vote, markets quickly recovered and with US consumer confidence hitting a home run, Sterling opens this morning on 1.5900. A basket of fundamentals due for release this evening as well as Inflation hearings within the Bank of England leaves some event risk ahead, although a large focus will still be across to the mainland continent where further ECB bank loans are expected to be announced. Antipodean cross rates open higher this morning with Sterling buying AU$1.4750 and NZ$1.8970.

We expect a range today of 1.4650 – 1.4810

Majors: Retail sales figures boosted the Japanese Yen during its local session on Tuesday as January numbers outpaced December by 1.9%. Pushing back against the US Dollar, the Yen moved back closer towards the 80.00 handle although it was not able to move below. During North American trade US consumer confidence posted an impressive 70.8, up from last month’s 61.5, and this bolstered the US Dollar to pare losses against the Yen to settle at 80.50. Europe is likely to be the focus of the next 24 hours as the ECB is expected to announce a new set of long term financing loans to banks totalling around 470 billion Euros. Markets are well supported on risk sentiment and the Euro trades around 80 points higher this morning despite S&P downgrading Greek Debt to ‘selective default’ status. The widely expected move following the passing of voluntary private creditor write-downs barely created a ripple in the markets and despite a brief dip following concern Ireland will not support the Euro-zone treaty, the single currency trades this morning above 1.3450 with 1.3500 in sight.

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Data releases:

AUD: Retail Sales; HIA New Home Sales; Private Sector Credit; Construction Work Done

NZD: NBNZ Business Confidence; Building Consents m/m

JPY: Prelim Industrial Production m/m; Manufacturing PMI

GBP: GfK Consumer Confidence; Net Lending to Individuals m/m; Inflation Report Hearings; Mortgage Approvals

EUR: CPI y/y; French Consumer Spending m/m; German Unemployment Change

USD: Prelim GDP q/q; Chicago PMI; Beige Book; Crude Oil Inventories

This information has been written by Carly Pickering of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). This forex commentary is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

New Zealand Dollar:  The New Zealand dollar was lower against its U.S. counterpart on Monday after European leaders agreed to strengthen economic integration in the euro zone but failed to reassure markets on the handling of the region”s debt crisis. After beginning the week above 0.7750, closer scrutiny of Friday’s developments soon sent risk sentiment crumbling and the Kiwi fell to an eventual low of 0.7615. Opening this morning slightly higher at 0.7630, in a week where the local economic calendar is relatively light, overseas developments will continue to dominate the Kiwi’s direction. On the cross rates, the New Zealand Dollar has lost a little ground against the Aussie although it still remains in recent ranges at 0.7580.

We expect a range today of 0.7570 – 0.7650

Great British Pound: A report published by economists at Standard Chartered bank predicted the economy in the UK would contract by 1.3% in 2012, in contrast to their previous growth prediction of 0.6%. Although Standard Chartered’s forecast in worse than the average economists’ predictions, it still played on investor’s nerves and sent the Pound Sterling south to lows below 1.5550. Despite an attempt to pare earlier losses, the majority of gains proved unsustainable in the current risk-off environment and Cable opens this morning around 1.5580. Moving higher against its more risk-sensitive counterparts the GBP/AUD trades at 1.5470 and the GBP/NZD at 2.0420.

We expect a range today of 1.5380 – 1.5550

Majors:  Foreign exchange markets began the week in a risk-off fashion as any optimism created from last week’s EU summit is slowly eroded away. Credit rating agency Moody’s came to bat overnight, saying it will review the ratings of European Union nations after plans released at the conclusion of the summit failed to produce decisive steps to end the debt crisis. Fitch also joined that party re-affirming Moody’s sentiment and highlighting nothing in the new plan will ease pressure on Europe’s sovereign bond ratings. After opening on Monday morning around 1.3370 the Euro soon set about a one way move to the down side, taking out 1.3300 by early Europe hours and 1.3200 during the North American session. Finding support at 1.3170 yearly lows near 1.2880 are in sight if support around 1.3150 is broken. The Greenback, helped along by European woes and encouraging economic indicators of late, has remained in an upward channel and looks ahead to this evening’s FOMC statement for further direction. Aside from posting gains against the riskier classed currencies, it has also gained ground against the Japanese Yen, trading at 77.90 this morning.

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Data releases:

AUD: NAB Business Confidence

NZD: FPI m/m

JPY: Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

GBP: CPI y/y; RPI y/y

EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment

USD: Retail Sales m/m; FOMC Statement; Business Inventories m/m; Federal Funds Rate

This information has been written by Carly Pickering of OzForex Pty Ltd (AFSL 226 484). It is republished at Forex.com.au as general information only. IMPORTANT : This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in its website, emails or its related websites.

We expect a range today of 1.0290 – 1.0410

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand Dollar remained range bound for the majority of yesterday’s session trading between a 24 hour low of 0.7922 and a high of 0.7989 against its US Counterpart. With some clear resistance now marked around the 80 US Cents level, investors are set to remain on the side-lines in the short-term until some further clarity over Europe’s Debt is established. Providing support for the Kiwi yesterday local equities finished around 0.3 percent higher, commodities were stronger whilst global risk sentiment turned positive following the announcement that the Italian PM has promised to resign after parliament passes economic reforms demanded by the European Union. Looking ahead this morning the New Zealand Dollar opens stronger currently buying 79.78 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.7910 – 0.8030

Great British Pound

UK Stocks rallied for the first time in three days yesterday as the Sterling opens noticeably stronger against its US Counterpart this morning at rate of 1.6109. After earlier trading to a 24 hour low of 1.6034 the Great British Pound followed the FTSE 100 Index higher with a raft of strong corporate numbers helping renew optimism that the market remains relatively robust despite the ongoing concerns surrounding the broader Europe. Providing further support for the Sterling yesterday was the planned resignation of Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi as the Sterling opens stronger against both the Australian Dollar (1.5512) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.0176).

We expect a range today of 1.5440 – 1.5610

Majors:

US Stocks rallied, the S&P 500 climbed 0.5 percent and the EURO rose yesterday as optimism blossomed throughout financial markets. In what has come as a sigh of relief for many investors Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has agreed to step down after the PM failed to muster an absolute majority during a routine parliamentary ballot, obtaining only 308 votes in the 630-seat Chamber. As a result a successor is due to be announced once the parliament approves the countries austerity measures, with fresh hope that a change in leadership will help side-line fears of further contagion throughout the region. Following the announcement the EURO rallied to reach an eventual high of 1.3846 against its US Counterpart opening half a cent higher this morning at a rate of 1.3827. Meanwhile in the US overnight Berlusconi’s offer to quit was also well received with financial shares being the major benefactor pushing the Dow Jones higher by 0.7 percent. Meanwhile this morning the Greenback opens stronger against the Japanese Yen at a rate of 77.691

Data releases

AUD: Westpac Consumer Confidence 

NZD: No Data Today

JPY: Bank Lending y/y, Current Account  

GBP: BRC Shop Price Index y/y, Trade Balance

EUR: French Gov Budget Balance

USD: Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, Wholesale inventories m/m, FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks, Loan Office Survey